Climate warming and precipitation redistribution modify tree–grass interactions and tree species establishment in a warm‐temperate savanna

Savanna tree–grass interactions may be particularly sensitive to climate change. Establishment of two tree canopy dominants, post oak (Quercus stellata) and eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana), grown with the dominant C₄ perennial grass (Schizachyrium scoparium) in southern oak savanna of the United States were evaluated under four climatic scenarios for 6 years. Tree–grass interactions were examined with and without warming (+1.5 °C) in combination with a long‐term mean rainfall treatment and a modified rainfall regime that redistributed 40% of summer rainfall to spring and fall, intensifying summer drought. The aim was to determine: (1) the relative growth response of these species, (2) potential shifts in the balance of tree–grass interactions, and (3) the trajectory of juniper encroachment into savannas, under these anticipated climatic conditions. Precipitation redistribution reduced relative growth rate (RGR) of trees grown with grass. Warming increased growth of J. virginiana and strongly reduced Q. stellata survival. Tiller numbers of S. scoparium plants were unaffected by warming, but the number of reproductive tillers was increasingly suppressed by intensified drought each year. Growth rates of J. virginiana and Q. stellata were suppressed by grass presence early, but in subsequent years were higher when grown with grass. Quercus stellata had overall reduced RGR, but enhanced survival when grown with grass, while survival of J. virginiana remained near 100% in all treatments. Once trees surpassed a threshold height of 1.1 m, both tiller number and survival of S. scoparium plants were drastically reduced by the presence of J. virginiana, but not Q. stellata. Juniperus virginiana was the only savanna dominant in which neither survival nor final aboveground mass were adversely affected by the climate scenario of warming and intensified summer drought. These responses indicate that climate warming and altered precipitation patterns will further accelerate juniper encroachment and woody thickening in a warm‐temperate oak savanna.     

Predicting species‐specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records

Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn‐fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life‐history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change.     

Effects of grazing on grassland soil carbon: a global review

Soils of grasslands represent a large potential reservoir for storing CO₂, but this potential likely depends on how grasslands are managed for large mammal grazing. Previous studies found both strong positive and negative grazing effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) but explanations for this variation are poorly developed. Expanding on previous reviews, we performed a multifactorial meta‐analysis of grazer effects on SOC density on 47 independent experimental contrasts from 17 studies. We explicitly tested hypotheses that grazer effects would shift from negative to positive with decreasing precipitation, increasing fineness of soil texture, transition from dominant grass species with C₃ to C₄ photosynthesis, and decreasing grazing intensity, after controlling for study duration and sampling depth. The six variables of soil texture, precipitation, grass type, grazing intensity, study duration, and sampling depth explained 85% of a large variation (±150 g m^?2 yr^?1) in grazing effects, and the best model included significant interactions between precipitation and soil texture (P = 0.002), grass type, and grazing intensity (P = 0.012), and study duration and soil sampling depth (P = 0.020). Specifically, an increase in mean annual precipitation of 600 mm resulted in a 24% decrease in grazer effect size on finer textured soils, while on sandy soils the same increase in precipitation produced a 22% increase in grazer effect on SOC. Increasing grazing intensity increased SOC by 6–7% on C₄‐dominated and C₄–C₃ mixed grasslands, but decreased SOC by an average 18% in C₃‐dominated grasslands. We discovered these patterns despite a lack of studies in natural, wildlife‐dominated ecosystems, and tropical grasslands. Our results, which suggest a future focus on why C₃ vs. C₄‐dominated grasslands differ so strongly in their response of SOC to grazing, show that grazer effects on SOC are highly context‐specific and imply that grazers in different regions might be managed differently to help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.     

Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events

Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss‐dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long‐term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree‐dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss‐dominated peat bog permanently into a tree‐dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree‐dominated state after a return to previous ‘normal’ rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree‐dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.     

A novel Aurora-A-mediated phosphorylation of p53 inhibits its interaction with MDM2

Purpose: Crosstalk between Aurora-A kinase and p53 has been proposed. While the genetic amplification of Aurora-A has been observed in many human cancers, how p53 is regulated by Aurora-A remains ambiguous. In this study, Aurora-A-mediated phosphorylation of p53 was analyzed by mass spectrometry in order to identify a new phosphorylation site. Subsequently, the functional consequences of such phosphorylation were examined. Experimental design: In vitro phosphorylation of p53 by Aurora-A was performed and the phosphorylated protein was then digested with trypsin and enriched for phosphopeptides by immobilized metal affinity chromatography. Subsequently, a combination of β-elimination and Michael addition was applied to the phosphopeptides in order to facilitate the identification of phosphorylation sites by MS. The functional consequences of the novel phosphorylation of p53 on the protein–protein interactions, protein stability and transactivation activity were then examined using co-immunoprecipitation, Western blotting and reporter assays. Results: Ser-106 of p53 was identified as a novel site phosphorylated by Aurora-A. A serine-to-alanine mutation at this site was found to attenuate Aurora-A-mediated phosphorylation in vitro. In addition, phosphate-sensitive Phos-tag SDS-PAGE was used to confirm that the Ser-106 of p53 is in vivo phosphorylated by Aurora-A. Finally, co-immunoprecipitation studies suggested that Ser-106 phosphorylation of p53 decreases its interaction with MDM2 and prolongs the half-life of p53. Conclusions: The inhibition of the interaction between p53 and MDM2 by a novel Aurora-A-mediated p53 phosphorylation was identified in this study and this provides important information for further investigations into the interaction between p53 and Aurora-A in terms of cancer biology.     

Adjustment for exploratory cut-off selection in randomized clinical trials with survival endpoint

Defining the target population based on predictive biomarkers plays an important role during clinical development. After establishing a relationship between a biomarker candidate and response to treatment in exploratory phases, a subsequent confirmatory trial ideally involves only subjects with high potential of benefiting from the new compound. In order to identify those subjects in case of a continuous biomarker, a cut-off is needed. Usually, a cut-off is chosen that resulted in a subgroup with a large observed treatment effect in an exploratory trial. However, such a data-driven selection may lead to overoptimistic expectations for the subsequent confirmatory trial. Treatment effect estimates, probability of success, and posterior probabilities are useful measures for deciding whether or not to conduct a confirmatory trial enrolling the biomarker-defined population. These measures need to be adjusted for selection bias. We extend previously introduced Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques for adjustment of subgroup selection bias to a time-to-event setting with cut-off selection. Challenges in this setting are that treatment effects become time-dependent and that subsets are defined by the biomarker distribution. Simulation studies show that the proposed method provides adjusted statistical measures which are superior to naïve Maximum Likelihood estimators as well as simple shrinkage estimators.     

Variable selection in joint frailty models of recurrent and terminal events

Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in biomedical studies. In many situations, they are subject to an informative terminal event, for example, death. Joint modeling of recurrent and terminal events has attracted substantial recent research interests. On the other hand, there may exist a large number of covariates in such data. How to conduct variable selection for joint frailty proportional hazards models has become a challenge in practical data analysis. We tackle this issue on the basis of the “minimum approximated information criterion” method. The proposed method can be conveniently implemented in SAS Proc NLMIXED for commonly used frailty distributions. Its finite-sample behavior is evaluated through simulation studies. We apply the proposed method to model recurrent opportunistic diseases in the presence of death in an AIDS study.     

Effects of climate warming on host–parasitoid interactions

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